Lebanon Pager Attack Shifts Middle East Tech Trust Towards China
Regional Perspectives of Western Tech Trust Challenged as Chinese Alternatives Gains Favour
In the wake of the devastating pager, walkie-talkie explosions which occurred in Lebanon on September 18-18, 2024, further investigations revealed sophisticated operation that exploited vulnerabilities in global supply chains. The scale and precision of the attacks have led many to describe it as potentially “the largest-scale physical supply chain attack in the history” as per the prior article. The complexity of modern supply chains, which often span multiple countries and involve numerous intermediaries, makes them particularly susceptible to such infiltration.
The incident, which resulted in significant civilian casualties, has been characterised by Professor Yin Zhiguang of Fudan University as a brutal massacre that “once again refreshes our understanding of the lower limits of Western civilisation.”1 This commentary reflects the heightened tensions in the region and raises questions about the ethical implications of using everyday technology as tools for warfare, suggesting a broader cultural and ethical crisis stemming from such violent acts.2
As reported, Israeli operatives allegedly established at least three fake companies posing as international pager manufacturers, including one named BAC supposedly based in Hungary. These companies produced and sold explosive-laced pagers to Hezbollah and its allies.
The operation, which reportedly began as early as the summer of 2022, saw thousands of doctored pagers distributed throughout Lebanon. The explosives, identified as PETN, were mixed into the batteries of these devices. On September 17, 2024, the explosions were allegedly triggered by a message disguised as an order from Hezbollah’s senior leadership.
Several brands and models have been implicated in the attacks:
AR-924 pagers, initially linked to a Taiwanese company named Gold Apollo and a Hungarian firm called BAC Consulting KFT.
Motorola LX2 and Teletrim pagers, which allegedly had explosives inserted during a three-month port layover.
ICOM IC-V82 walkie-talkies, a model discontinued in 2014, raising questions about the supply chain and potential counterfeiting.
In the wake of the attacks, a palpable shift in trust towards Chinese technology has emerged, particularly in the Arab world. A quote from a Kuwaiti netizen encapsulates a growing skepticism towards Western technology, particularly that from the United States, and a pivot towards Chinese alternatives3.
"Naturally, people with morals and conscience had already replaced America with China. As for those with morals but lacking conscience, now, out of concern for their own safety, they have also replaced it (America) with [China]."
China has been actively fostering relationships with Arab states, emphasizing cooperation across various sectors including technology, energy, and infrastructure. The China-Arab States Cooperation Forum4,5 has seen significant advancements in trade and strategic partnerships, positioning China as a key player in the region's technological landscape.
With trade between China and Arab countries surging significantly over the past two decades—rising from $36.7 billion in 2004 to approximately $431.4 billion in 20226—there is a clear trend of increasing economic interdependence. This economic relationship bolsters China's position as a viable alternative to Western technology.
According to Wang Jin, director of the Israel Research Center at Northwest University, Israel has been meticulously preparing for a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon for months.7 The recent pager explosions, which targeted Hezbollah’s grassroots cadres, may be seen as a prelude to this wider campaign.
Several factors have contributed to Israel’s aggressive stance:
Ongoing security concerns in northern Israel, leading to the relocation of about 60,000 Israeli citizens.
Domestic political pressure to address the Hezbollah threat.
The relative stabilization of the situation in Gaza, allowing Israel to redirect military resources.
Apparent coordination with the United States, as evidenced by unusually frequent communications between defense officials.
The potential for a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah raises serious concerns about regional stability. There are fears that the conflict could escalate beyond Lebanon, potentially drawing in other regional powers like Iran and even global superpowers.
China’s Rise: Perception vs. Reality
According to a post in Guancha, a narrative has emerged suggesting that China is “winning without doing anything.”8 This perception, however, oversimplifies the complex realities of geopolitics and China’s long-term strategic engagement in the region.
China’s growing influence in the Middle East is not accidental but the result of years of diplomatic efforts, economic engagement, and a consistent foreign policy approach. The principle of mutual benefit, adherence to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which include mutual respect, non-aggression, and equality; and the trustworthiness of Chinese enterprises have gradually built a reservoir of goodwill and trust among Middle Eastern nations. China’s approach in the Middle East, characterised by a blend of diplomatic finesse, economic pragmatism, and a commitment to principles that resonate with regional aspirations for autonomy and development signifies a shift in global power dynamics where emerging economies are gaining more influence in traditional geopolitical arenas.
That said, the perception that China’s technology as a safer alternative to Western products, particularly in the context of the global competition for 5G dominance, has been a topic of discussion since at least 2020. The framing of the 5G race as a proxy for U.S.-China rivalry is well-documented. Analysts have noted that the competition extends beyond mere technological advancements to encompass issues of national security, economic influence, and global leadership. Reports have highlighted how China’s aggressive push in 5G technology, led by companies like Huawei, has raised concerns in the U.S. and allied nations about espionage and security risks associated with Chinese technology.9,10
As nations weigh the benefits and risks of adopting Chinese technology versus Western alternatives, this could lead to significant shifts in global supply chains and technological standards. Middle Eastern elites are increasingly viewing the current geopolitical shifts as an opportunity to reposition their region in the global order. There’s a growing recognition that China may be supplanting the United States as the dominant global power, leading to speculation about how this transition might affect the Middle East. However, the tendency to view this shift in terms of simply replacing one hegemon with another reflects the lingering influence of Western political theories. This binary perspective fails to capture the nuances of China’s approach to international relations and the potential for a more multipolar world order.
The notion that the world is transitioning from a unipolar (U.S.-dominated) to a bipolar or multipolar system often aligns with classical geopolitical frameworks that emphasize power competition. This perspective can obscure strategies employed by rising powers, which do not necessarily seek outright hegemony in the traditional sense but rather aim for a more collaborative and multipolar world order. China’s foreign policy has increasingly emphasized principles such as mutual benefit and non-interference, which contrast with the more interventionist approaches historically associated with Western powers. This approach is articulated through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to enhance economic ties and infrastructure development across multiple regions without imposing Western-style governance models.
Recognising the complexities of China’s rise necessitates moving beyond simplistic hegemonic narratives. Instead, it requires an understanding of how various nations interact within a dynamic international system where power is distributed across multiple actors, including regional powers and non-state entities. The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that countries are increasingly seeking to assert their interests through cooperation rather than confrontation, fostering an environment where diplomacy and economic partnerships play crucial roles.
Looking Ahead
The pager incident has highlighted the vulnerabilities in global technology supply chains and
maywill accelerate trends towards tech nationalism and the diversification of supply chains. Thiscouldwill have profound implications for global trade and international relations.The targeting of civilian communication devices raises urgent questions about the nature of security in an interconnected world. It challenges traditional notions of warfare and blurs the lines between civilian and military targets.
The changing dynamics in the Middle East reflect broader shifts in the global order. As the region adapts to these changes, could there be potential for the emergence of a more multipolar system, challenging the traditional binary of East vs. West?
For China, the increased trust and expectations from Middle Eastern nations present both opportunities and challenges. This alone require careful balancing of interests and a continued commitment to mutual benefit and non-interference. The path forward will require diplomacy, a reevaluation of global supply chains, and a reimagining of security in the digital age. It is perhaps apt to state that the simplistic narrative of replacing one hegemony with another fail to capture the full complexity of the situation?
Ultimately, the pager incident and its aftermath is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global security, technology, and geopolitics in the 21st century. As the dust settles, the true test will be how nations adapt to these new realities and work towards a more stable and equitable global order.